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Thursday, May 17, 2012

SPX, RUT, and VIX Updates: Market Placed on Crash Watch


A person is placed on suicide watch when he or she displays certain self-destructive patterns and behaviors.  Likewise, a market is placed on crash watch when it displays certain destructive patterns and behaviors.  As I've been warning about for the past couple weeks, this market has displayed certain "red flag" behaviors, and the pattern is now becoming quite dangerous if not reversed quickly. 

I should add that I use the term "crash" in the sense of "a strong, unrelenting decline that really messes up your portfolio."  Some people envision 1929 when they hear the word -- and while that's always possible, the charts below tell the story of my current expectations.

All hope is not lost yet for the bulls, as they have one major line of defense remaining, which we'll discuss in a moment -- but first, an explanation of why the market is being placed on crash watch.

In Elliott Wave Theory, one of the things we pay attention to is called the "base channel."  The majority of corrective moves remain (approximately) within this base channel, so when the market stays within the base channel, we can then expect the prior trend is more likely to resume.  However, when the market falls out of the base channel, it is strongly suggestive that the move is no longer a correction, but a new trend.

There's also a name for the channel which is expected to follow the base channel -- it's called the "acceleration channel."  Pretty self-explanatory.

The chart below shows the base channel in purple.  Yesterday, I thought the bulls might make a run at recovering that channel, but we can see in this chart that they were unable to do so. 

Unless the market finds support quickly and recovers the channel, the move has strong potential to accelerate lower.   




So, while the market remains outside this channel, it is officially on crash watch.  Long positions should be considered high risk as long as the market remains beneath the lower channel boundary, which now crosses roughly 1345.

As I talked about yesterday, the market has yet to see anything even approaching the level of strong selling that we'd expect to see at a meaningful low -- which means this strong-selling phase is most likely in the market's future.

Another indicator which agrees with the danger discussed above is the Volatility Index (VIX).  VIX effectively measures the amount of fear present in the market, so when VIX goes up, it means the market is going down.  A couple weeks ago, I talked about the fact that VIX had built a solid-looking base from which to launch a rally.  It has now broken out of that base and, so far, successfully back-tested that base.




The Russell 2000 (RUT) has also lost key support.  It is in a similar postion to SPX: unless it can rally back above the red trendline, it's in real danger.





The short-term picture has been extremely difficult to sort through, as the market has formed a number of somewhat unusual and unpredictable fractals filled with excessive overlap.  At this stage, a small bounce would fit nicely into the picture, but certainly isn't required.  The short-term pattern that's now formed is either:

1)  An ending pattern (ending diagonal) which will find a near-term bottom quickly (not necessarily an intermediate bottom)
2)  The prelude to a strong decline.

Unfortunately, the two patterns look almost identical at this phase in their development.  Paying attention to how the market behaves near the upper trendlines should help provide clues.  The blue "(2)?" annotation illustrates what could happen if this is an ending pattern.

The alternate count (in black) considers the potential of a decent bottom forming in the near future, possibly in the low 1300's (as discussed in a moment), which would allow the market to recover the base channel and thus be taken off crash watch. I currently consider this count to be the underdog.




Now let's discuss the bull defenses.  The last major line of defense for the bulls comes in near the 1290-1310 zone.  The two charts below illustrate this.

First is the S&P 500 monthly chart, which shows a series of support zones crossing just beneath the current price levels.




Next is an hourly chart, with a more detailed look at shorter-term support (and resistance).  This chart also echoes the importance of the 1290-1310 zone.  Bears should be alert to a bounce from this zone.




 
In conclusion, what happens in the next few sessions could be critical to the market's longer-term health.  Since May 4, I've been stating that the market is in a dangerous position -- but in the last couple sessions, the market's position has grown exponentially more troublesome.  If bulls want to have any hope of staving off a much deeper decline, they are going to need to stage a strong defense soon, and recover some key levels.  My expectation remains that the intermediate trend has indeed changed to down, but, as always, the market is the final authority.  Trade safe.

Reprinted by permission, copyright 2012 Minyanville Media, Inc.

599 comments:

  1. Good morning.  How'd those eur/usd shorts do?  ;)

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  2. So what's the verdict?  Send this one to Minyanville or not?

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  3. great call.  You still looking for 2650-2660?

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  4. Definitely - could be the call of the year. Well done - will watch with interest. If you're right should finally be able to make a contribution - here's hoping for both of us.

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  5. Excellent work there PL...I promise not to mention anything involving my attire for the day, so as not to invoke the "infamous photo".

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  6. Is that the one with the goat's head?

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  7. I don't want to see it go much higher here, or I'll lose confidence in that target short term.  It could still get there, but it might stage a deep retrace first if it gets much above 2953.  Low was 2657 so far... maybe that was it.  Should know shortly.

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  8. Abso-Frickin-Lutely.

    This is a masterpiece.

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  9. Just be careful here, as I noted, this could be an ending pattern forming/formed.

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  10. did not get out when bounce and now go back where their started.

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  11. You obviously missed the short entry then.  I suggested the entry at 1.27435 -- even after the big bounce, it's still only at 1.27000. 

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  12. Confidence in QE remains strong. Why shouldn't it? It has worked every time so far. Any significant crash will only occur when QE is tried to failure, or absolutely ruled out as an option. So it remains a hole card that can trigger a significant bounce, one that may bust counts (again) on the US indexes. 

    In other words, I wouldn't look for "the big one" until at least one more round of QE, one that ends in failure and a loss of confidence in it. Since that's today's tulip bulbs and all there is now, once confidence in it fails, what follows could be historic.

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  13. Much as I like this article, I think I'm going to skip sending it.  Not sure general public can differentiate between calling for a crash and suggesting one is very possible if X and Y doesn't happen.  I dunno.  

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  14. Shorted eur again at 1.27090...  stops at recent high.

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  15. OK. No need to spook the horses over a cliff....

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  16. I did get the entry right but add some more on half way down.  It's my fault. will try to get out when in black.  

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  17. Good morning PL, perhaps this chart may help you to decide what comes next. A straw in the wind? kind regards

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  18. Ah... gotta watch that risk management!  :)

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  19. Missed both the 6's in there for some reason.  Trying to do too much, sorry if that messed anyone up.

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  20. stopped -- rally looks impulsive.

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  21. I shorted at 1.27091, haha beat you with 0.00001, j/k. opps as I type it went to 1.2719 already..are you stopped out ?

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  22. Not necessarily talking about "the big one."  Since QE started, we've had both the flash crash and the mini-crash.  I believe that type of scenario is very possible here.

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  23. that's very true...the "C" word is pretty powerful medicine

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  24. Good day to you good doctor.....how are those "itchy, magnificent" eyes of yours? I trust you're prepared and surviving the "double-dip" over there in merry old E?

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  25. Great article, thanks for the LT 'bigger picture' charts w/ all the support lines

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  26. as to not scare the natives how about "decent watch", "dive watch" or maybe tumble/stumble/plunge/fall...

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  27. imo today's update is pale in comparison to your liquidity rant on May 11 where you mention crash and implied collapse of the entire system.  Seems like in your business, you would want to be early at calling trends (crash).

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  28. Tough call. I see your point, but I also acknowledge the little retailer is in no position to see the potential of a portfolio altering scenario.

    PS - Great post. I appreciate the large picture update. Is it me, or does 1422 look like a potential top of a right shoulder on a massive head and shoulders formation on the $SPX monthly?I don't know if volume fits the pattern, but it is interesting nonetheless.

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  29. Are we setting up for a bounce?

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  30. RUT falling, Is this the neckline break that the group has had their eye on?

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  31. I forgot to annotate this on the chart in the article (actually I annotated it on the wrong chart, lol), but this is one of the other things I watch regarding momentum (see chart).

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  32. US Philly Fed Index a HUGE miss!

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  33. CVX hanging by a thread -- I still feel this 99-100 zone is critical suport.

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  34. Thanks, but I can't churn out articles like that one everyday, ya know.  :)

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  35. I changed it to "dive watch" in the MV version.  I tend to use the term crash too loosely anyway.  To me, 2011 was a crash.

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  36. Ultimate Oscillator was just under 30 for $SPX. The last few years anytime it get goes under 30 has been a decent buy signal.

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  37. Eur whipping around like a tech stock right before earnings released...

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  38. Thanks for the info!

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  39. Is it just my impression, or is there zero fear in this market?  Everyone convinced the powers-that-be will save the day.  And maybe they will -- but I can't help thinking this is a contrarian indicator.

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  40. Facebook will save the day...what do they make again?

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  41. They make it easy for BIG BLUE to watch you!!  That's only for those who use it.  Who knows maybe they mandate all of us to open an account. 

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  42. I will be buying FB at any price, repeatedly hitting the 'buy at market' all day tomorrow.  Going to the bank today to max out my HELOC and take out as many personal loans as I can attain.  I'm gonna be rich!!!!!!

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  43. Smiling faces, show no traces, of the evil that lurks within.......

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  44. Philly Fed Index might have been just the bad news the market was waiting for to get bullish about QE3, at least for a few moments.

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  45. No problem. Now it is 30.89. I am looking at the daily chart, so if it closes below 30 it will get printed on it.

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  46. this is the effect of QE1, 2, Operation twist shorts' balls off.  Now the possibility of it is holding market together.  Just like the actual QE effects' themselves, the effect of this will be short-lived.

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  47. I post a congratulatory "Thank You for keeping us safe." letters to the Fed, CIA, NSA, TSA, Republicans, Democrats, Bilderbergers, CFA, Masons, and Illuminati just about every other day. I figure I should be getting drone operator recruiting letters eventually....gotta love Skynet, cuz Skynet loves you.

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  48. I'm gonna buy all my shares on my iPhone, just to be a good Oomerican. Baaaa

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  49.  I use and like facebook.  But after crashing with tech stocks in 2000, I avoid Bubbles.  Now her friend Trixy I like.

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  50. Katzo called RUT 770 as a critical level last night.  It broke through this morning and so far, the backtest has held.  If I were a crash, this is where I would start.

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  51. "moments" is the operative word.

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  52. I still believe we're setting up for a bounce...

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  53. I am training the hummingbirds in my garden to attack the drones. Sic 'em!

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  54. Whoa.....I am watching ASA very closely and believe it will stall out here at $21.85 or lower and then drop under $20 in the next week or so. Based on your CBOE exp.....what option would yield the best return. Target price on ASA is $18.89

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  55. Yeah...I keep getting nothing but "Sugar Daddy Russian Dating" sites whenever writing aforementioned letters....the wife was gonna kick my butt, then she realized I can't afford that high maintenance stuff.

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  56. Philly Fed helped SPX hit PL's downside target for today...  A bounce is expected but if we don't get it soon, then we may continue looking below...

    Regarding the lack of fear, I believe that the last 2 weeks we went through disastrous Greek elections, sharp EUR drop, discussion about euro exit, ECB cutting of some Greek banks, possible downgrade of Spanish banks, the Philly Fed and much more... And still no fearful selling.. That's another reason I expect a ST bounce (unless some really bad news are announced soon) .

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  57. Above 1324 targets 1327-28, then 1331-32.

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  58. As long as you leave my drone alone...we'll be doing "God's work".

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  59. I think Trixy and Roxy have emailed me...damned cheaters.

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  60. Got it. Just the sort of thing to launch a new round of QE.

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  61. Every other day would be just fine... :P

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  62. It's basically too hard to answer here.  From a purely percent return basis, OTM options provide best potential.   But they can also get over-priced easily.  deep ITM options trade more like futures.  The % return may not be as high, but the dollar returns can be higher.  E.g. OTM option may go from 1-2, while ITM option may go from 4-6.50.  To lower your risk (and potential return) enter into a put spread - e.g. 22-18.  IF it indeed moves to your target, the 22 will appreciate and the 18 will expire worthless.  Not trading advice.

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  63. i agree that we're likely to get a bounce because everyone seems to be on guard for a crash. Even PL and Daneric's analysis was the same(not insinuating anything to PL- you are amazing and original.) Just pointing at that the downside trade is a bit overcrowded? not that i have the guts to go long, but waiting on the sidelines for one that might carry into next week.

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  64. Please take a moment to revisit the article at Minyanville.  Need to get my readership back up there, to justify all the exceptions I got them to make for us over here.  :)

    http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/technical-analysis-elliott-wave-elliott-wave/5/17/2012/id/41072

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  65. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wKyXA_nMVQ

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  66. It looks like the FB IPO has been holding back the downward momentum from being unleashed, because people think a crash won't happen before the IPO. This implies that the downtrend will gain pace early next week...

    OR 

    the FB IPO has been preventing the expected upward correction from taking place, because people keep selling shares to buy FB. This implies share prices will recover after tomorrow, as people will reposition money that were not allocated to FB due to it being oversubscribed...

    Any comments?

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  67. as they round the first turn, it's Sony by a nose. Hope our horse doesn't stumble or throw the jockey!

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  68. wow , volatility is crazy today. The FX pairs whipsawing, definitely more exciting than equities. Keeping an eye on UVXY again to gauge the market, big jumps again today. 

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  69. My interpretation is the same as yours and pdragon's. The DOW keeps coming back up to retest higher every time. It does not want to go down. That's my take on it.

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  70. round trip complete

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  71. See, here's the thing (regarding downside being crowded) -- it doesn't seem to me at all that the downside is crowded.  Everyone is looking for a bounce, as far as I can tell.  And even if this is a c-wave (corrective), it should fool the majority into believing the trend has changed BEFORE it bottoms IT.  As far as I can see, virtually nobody thinks the trend has changed except for me starting a while ago, and now a handful of other people.

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  72. My expectation for tomorrow is ramp and camp, but let's see how today plays out first.  The underwriters will support the IPO initially, but if the majority of the subscribers are retail, they will get shaken out of their positions rather quickly in the days/weeks afterwards, and institutions will buy at below IPO prices.

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  73. I think this is going to be a muted bounce.

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  74. Yes, but now it's wound around that MACD zero line like a rubber band.

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  75. Don't know. Too bad we can't send a drone over to his house and have it ring the door bell.

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  76. Can anyone help me understand the point gap btw ES & S&P?  Seems to be sitting around 4 or so (roughly) usually, just now it is down to 1.  Does a widening or narrowing foretell anything or it simply 'just what it does'?  Thanks.

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  77. yup, your down volume : up volume chart yesterday summed it up nicely.

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  78. Been looking for a bounce/bottom in GLD and mining stocks for the past 2 days.  Got it today in spades.  NUGT up 16%.

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  79. Just look at AUD, people have no fear and are still buying risk assets..but bonds are telling another story....

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  80. The closer the front-month contract gets to expiration, the tighter the spread becomes.  That's all it means.  :)

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  81. I would say that just looking at option activity on SPY that the bias is extremely toward the downside.  Yesterday when I check the put:call ratio was nearly 4:1 (I'm looking at Jun 16)

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  82. This could mean that the put buyers, that out-number the call buyers, expect a drop in the SPY.

    So either these people are very smart and we see the market do what they expect; or the market makers will want to turn the market against this larger crowd.

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  83. almost bought NUGT yesterday at 7.7 but got distracted by a phone call.....:(

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  84. Think zorses, not Hebrews.  Got it!

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  85. It reflects the carry (interest cost on money required to buy the index-dividends) to hold the underlying from 'today' until expiration.  It should be around 2-2.25 now, and will decline to zero as June expiration date approaches.  It will fluctuate intra-day though if everybody is trying to get long or short at the same time.  

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  86. Don't know how you can see that everyone is looking for a bounce, but thanks for that observation! ,,,DD

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  87. Thanks 'Nellie & PL, now I know, appreciate that

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  88. The majority of sentiment indicators are still tilted bullish, which means most are expecting the uptrend to resume, which means most are expecting a bounce.

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  89.  He IS a drone!

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  90. Hello again good doctor...MMM entering the $84-$85 buy range as discussed back in early May. Cover me, I'm goin in.

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  91. lots of them....snikeys...I think I'm riding one.

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  92. ROFLMAO...I needed that...thanks

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  93. Article's languishing over at Minyanville.  Shoulda stuck with the crash title!  :D

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  94. At what point did you see the trend changing?   Was it after the blimbo wave?

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  95. I wasn't sure immediately on the day of the blimbo wave, though those are quite common near trend changes...  but a couple days later, when I saw a second blimbo wave in the one-minute charts, I had no doubt. 

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  96. You're like Technical Answer Guy today!   I'm gonna start directing all the board questions to you.  :)

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  97. I'll go pretend to read it again over there. That should help.

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  98.  Shoulda thrown Facebook into the title..

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  99. Read it again to support you!

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  100. lol -- "Facebook Update:  Is Facebook Going to Fall Flat on Its Face?  FacebookFacebookFacebook"

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  101. Second guess #3....and I was gonna send ya a surprise shipment of TastyKakes. :(

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  102. It does, fer sure.  Just open the article in a separate window and go about your business, then it looks like you're actually reading it.  Many thanks.  :)

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  103. What's a "Dive Watch"?  Isn't that something you do over at Molokini?

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  104. "Bay Watch"

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  105. I just opened it on two PCs and two laptops

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  106. full sell signals, no buys except for the T-B TA.

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  107. Actually, I have a dive watch -- it's waterproof to 1000 meters.  Never tested it that deep, but if I ever dropped it in the ocean anywhere between here and Lanai, it should continue to function on its own for years... 

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  108. aapl crashing, down 2.4%

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  109. Or "Jennifer Aniston plans to buy FB on IPO, here's why'

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  110. This statement is so true. I read too much and almost 99% are calling for some type of bounce. The buyer strike continues.

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  111. GERONIMOooooooooooooo, market in free fall...panic selling yet?

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  112. Made a visit. It will pick up. People will be searching for answers... especially if no bounce this afternoon or tomorrow.

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  113. It's due to pricing arbitrage.  Holding the basket of stocks pays a divedend that needs to be priced into the futures contract.  Also, holding the futures contract allows for getting paid interest on the excess cash you don't have to pony up.  The closing of the gap is the different between dividends and an overnight interest rate.  Since interest rates are basically zero right now, the rise in the futures price relative to the SPX is due to dividends being paid.  There are about $24 in dividends annually, so $6 per quarter.  This leads to the $6 gap when the contract rolls each quarter and this gap closes over the 3 months until the contract settles.  Maybe that was more info than  you wanted, but that's the full story.

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  114. K7- do you have a downside target for this drop?  Thanks!

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  115. truerangeballisticMay 17, 2012 at 6:10 AM

    I was looking at this bear flag on Tuesday and thought no way this would happen. Sold my puts today to damn early, ugh.

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  116. what is T-B TA??

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  117. just did my second visit over at MV

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  118. testosterone based TA

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  119. See how when it was oversold on stochs and it should have bounced (around 1313) but more selling it instead?  That's what pros do when they want to get out in a down market - wait for stochs to bounce a tiny bit and WHAM, HIT THE BID.  Remember, TA/stochs don't work in a crash scenario.  They have a lot of volume they want to sell, they want the bid to get built up so they can get a decent amount off.  They do that just as the stochs are about to turn up.  And they do it for a while, this is what drives the crash.

    1313 es now resistance...But i won't be surprised if it gets sold hard again before it gets within spitting distance.  I could easily be wrong, not trading advice.

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  120. PL, Gettin' real close to the blue box on your last chart.

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  121. Brings a tear to my eye...that's a beautiful chart.

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  122. ROFLMAO...again.

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  123. $TRAN breaks 5K. A close below that line in the sand would be impressive.

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  124. I am hearing much more talk about a bounce than a crash... and have been for several days now.  Critical levels have been breached and I think any bounce is likely to be shallow & short-lived.  I would love to see it, tho.  It would provide an great opportunity to short (again).

    ... is that hoof-steps that I hear?

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  125. @PL, glad you posted your article at Minyanville. Lots of eyeballs there. ,,,dd

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  126. Will it pick up hits from a phone reading.... As opposed to a palm reading......

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  127.  I was able to bank about $.60 this morning.  Looking for another long entry soon.

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  128. Approaching 1316 resistance...

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  129. NYA now solidly below Oct '11 highs, and has erased all 2012 gains... hence this decline can't be a fourth wave at some higher degree with a 5th wave to come (which I've read on some other sites, etc) and why maybe the bulls are still complacent with no panic selling (yet). Just wait till after the bounce... hehehehe ;-) 

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  130. Thanks much for sharing your experience and insights.

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  131. Sideways for last 10 mins...was about to ask which way will it break...then it did. :)

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  132. Good afternoon all.  Man am I glad I was only paper trading with TNA.  Will I never learn??

    The article on FB contributing to this decline brings to mind the tsunami video that katzo posted awhile ago.  All the indexes are going down as everyone either sells equities to buy FB or holds off on buying to buy FB (PL's buyerless decline).  This is analogous to the water draining from the shore as the wave approaches then the IPO/wave hits. 

    Here's the scenario I'm now thinking about...FB IPO hits tomorrow and leads to a "rally" which goes as high as a retest of the trendline PL calls out in the third chart ~1340.  Then there's an event that will be blamed for ushering in the blue (3).  An even like Greece exiting the Euro could do it.  There's a Greek holiday on June 4th and of course the new elections on June 17th.

    It looks like the RUT bounce off of one of the lines in the Fib Fan that PL drew.  That me be tellinig.

    Good trading to all.
    -whip

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  133. done

    ________________________________

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  134. A nice little rally here into the 1320's and then dive into the close to finish near the lows would be nice.

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  135. there was one last leg to the ED i proposed yesterday ... and how cool ... an ED last leg to a bigger ED !!

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  136. thinking back up then?

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  137. Charts progressing nicely, from last thread, not updated. Ralph Elliott ~ the EW3 is a wonder to behold. Remember, these can run for a long time, when you hear hoof beats. . . .

    http://screencast.com/t/ddIhKzCl7p

    http://screencast.com/t/0v5NV7TdqtRQ

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  138. a close below the 200 DMA spells DOOOOOM or "DOOM-MA" as PL would say

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  139. As always, great stuff, k7. Thanks for sharing.

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  140. I am - but i also can envision 1 more new low...but i doubt it

    anecdotally, the bears are using terms like crash, and EW3 a wonder to behold etc... speaks for itself

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  141. truerangeballisticMay 17, 2012 at 7:37 AM

    Thanks Nostra. I was gun shy to post it earlier. Kinda of a pretty little thing. I used the perfomance % from Bullkowski's pattern site. Still have to learn to believe what I see or today would have been a whopper, lol. Best of trades to you.

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  142. thanks, i was too. but what do you make of the LD looking structure that happened off of the low that just had an overthrow and retest?  if it does break up, you thinking 1345 or 70?   thanks!

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  143. congratulations!   You've in the Guinness Book of World Records for posts about hoof beats and horsies

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  144. Boy, now here's surprise. Greece's LT ratings but to CCC from B- by Fitch. Call for backup!!

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  145. "Searching for answers" - great line from Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?

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  146. ...and to you :)

    This is what I use as an overview...
    http://screencast.com/t/3XcQkakscqp7

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  147. T_B TA still effective tool to follow

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  148. Die, Milk-Face!

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE

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  149. What is T_B TA please? 

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  150. use the 2 wave low as a stop level

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  151.  "Testosterone-Based"  (from below)

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  152. brilliant quote - absolute brilliance

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  153. Oh dear, said the Franch Fry.

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  154. Do not... seek... the treasure

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  155. Are you talking to Lloyd?

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  156. Katzo:

    I just spotted this outside my office.  Not sure what to make of it.

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  157. think hoofbeats

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  158. winding up, need to retest lows soon or we go higher IMO.  very small long on at 1312.50 es.

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  159. a zorse is a zorse, of course of course

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  160. anyone have ideas as to why gold is up +2.5% today?  

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  161. time to get out the calculator and plot the EW3 I have been discussing.

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  162.  Ok, I'll say something.  Not trying to cause a problem, but you seem overly antagonistic today.  What's the reason?

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  163. Bit like this Katzorse?

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  164. was/am thinking if we get higher low here, could move up to 3pm edt and possibly into the close.  just bought more at 1310 es.  SL 1308.75

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  165. easily offended reading self-congratulations on 'nailing' ALTERNATE counts - in addition to 22 hoofbeats and zebras posts
    send money

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  166. square root of zebra hoofs

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  167. Might be US/EU banks selling to cover other losses.

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  168. usually when ppl start relentless attacks it is because the lost real big. avoid ppl who keep on seeing a bottom every five minutes in a bear mrkt

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  169. OMG, the Red Candles of Doom!

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  170. As it happen, in spite of the indexes, CVX is hanging tough. Boo hiss.

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  171. flight from fiat?...I wonder if the CB folks are buying to save us from that barbarous relic.

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  172. I remember how hard it was on the way UP to get through 1310.  I expect the first attempt to crack it to fail.  This is good place for a minor retrace (ii of 3) to start.  As always, i could be wrong, not trading advice.  But my money is where my mouth is.

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  173. I think the Fed minutes stated that "several" board members were open to more QE if needed rather than a "couple" as before, plus gold is somewhat being considered a "safe haven" for Europe, plus approaching support levels, plus the lower price made gold affordable in India again.   The miners, i.e. GDX, have been up around 5% most of the day, the junior miners, i.e. GDXJ, is up around 6%.   

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  174. It is allowed to have an off day, been down 13 of 15 days......

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