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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

No Material Change


I've been trying to stick to finding at least one random day each week where I take the night off -- and this week, that's tonight.  No material change in the outlook from yesterday.

Just so you have something to look at, below is a chart of one of my proprietary signal indicators, with the components removed (I can't give away everything for free!).  This series of indicators issued a confirmed sell signal yesterday.  I have highlighted the past instances where the signal triggered, so you can see how well it's performed over the years




The Fed minutes were released on Wednesday, and there was lots of buzz about QE3.  After reading through the minutes, it's pretty obvious why everyone was so excited.  Buried within the document, I found this very revealing series of "strong statements" from the Fed:

Given the apparent slowing in the economic data, The Fed stands ready and willing to be able to be willing to be at the ready; whichever is greater. The Fed has many tools at its disposal (though, to be honest, Ben is all thumbs!) and is of course able to use these tools to accomplish things such as being ready to be willing.

The Fed is not afraid of an ecomonic slowdown, and is fully able to take whatever action it feels is appropriate, assuming that Ben doesn't show up drunk to the next meeting (again). The Fed wants it noted that it is not currently willing to take inappropriate actions unless it is deemed appropriate to do so -- in which case the Fed stands at the ready.

Also, we're not certain if we mentioned this yet, but the Fed has a lot of tools, some of which are almost certainly appropriate -- though it should be noted that we'd need to examine these tools in more detail first (which we are willing to do) just to be sure the tools are ready, and that we are able to use said tools, Good Lord willing. So say we all!


Trade safe!

87 comments:

  1. Hey PL, it's BA. I think your forum crashed. I tried from a couple different computers and my phone with the same error.

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  2. Think site crashed or was hacked

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  3. Same problem here, says I don't have permission to access the forums, something about the server too.

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  4. Figures.... Just when things were getting interesting. Looks like iii is kicking off.

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  5. It's good to know it's not just me. I was afraid I had been blocked.

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  6. I guess this is what it feels like to be put into exile.

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  7. I bet it won't take long and everybody will be over here.

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  8. Oh, I just saw that you're BenedictArnold. I didn't recognize you by your real name.

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  9. Glad to know I'm not the only out, I thought I was banned!!

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  10. Glad to know I'm not the only one out, thought I was banned!

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  11. Glad to know I'm not the only one out, thought I was banned!!

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  12. Timing couldn't have been worse. Looks like 1400 has been breached and if it holds could get ugly

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  13. PL is probably asleep and has no idea.

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  14. I had the possibility of an expanded flat down to 1401.38SPX. Bastard turned at 1401.50. Could be in for a rampfest back to 1417 to 1419 if that plays out.

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  15. Yup, It's me. No worries. Man this sucks.

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  16. I had a big short on the TF from 812 and covered too early. Still nice money but feared a reversal was coming. This market keeps you on edge. Nothing good happening in world but QE keeps the bulls alive.

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  17. There's a fractal at 1404.13. It will probably reverse back down when it reaches that.

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  18. Same here. I have an itchy trigger finger as well. Starting to not like the decline from this morning. Lots of three waves and it is contracting. starting to look either like an ending d for c, or it could be a leading d for sub i of iii down. Either way, both lead me to the conclusion of a marginal lower low and followed by some scary up.

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  19. I knew I should have bought GLD when it came out that Soros bought it. He had to know that something was fixing to break.

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  20. I guess it could be nested 1's and 2's, but it looks more like three wave moves in both directions.

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  21. Hi BA, yes, i'm watching to see if this is a 5-3-5 structure on this last wave...

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  22. aka Furr - should get at least a small pull back after the moon leaves Sagittarius 8/26.

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  23. aka Furr - I emailed him to let him know...

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  24. Hi Furr, starting to look like a rampfest into the close. I put it down lower in the post. 1401.38SPX would have taken the expanded flat option off the table for me. Dirty scoundrel turned at 1401.50. If that is the case then 1417 to 20 isn't out of the question for me for a retrace. Can I post a chart on here?

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  25. I was blaming my school for blocking me, till I tried from my phone.

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  26. Uh, oh. Look out above.

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  27. Ha, ha. That's funny. Always trying to flatten the learning curve, or is that the bond curve? I keep forgetting.

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  28. Yes, once you hit reply, there is a place below the comment line that lets you upload charts.

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  29. We are close to that psychologically relevant point where DJI 13000, SPX 1400 and NDX 2700 will be strongly defended.

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  30. Wow, I forgot how bad disqus sucks. Glad PL moved this thing.

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  31. Hey Furr, a few of us have made it here. I hope this is nothing big, ie an attack by someone. I couldn't find his email since I was out so glad you had it.

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  32. What do you think? Is it a buy signal? (5 min SP500 cash chart). The MACD didn't hit lower low with the market. On the 30 min chart the MACD is just about to cross.

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  33. TFs didn't suffer near as badly as ES. Late last night someone tamped up the TFs and they are holding on. Heard JPM controls them so they must be sucking in the last of them before they collapse it.

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  34. They are keeping this right at 1400 so who knows what is planned. Could drop like a rock.

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  35. I'll be perfectly honest, I proposed the option of an expanded flat so long as B didn't end below 1401.38. 1401.50 doesn't qualify in my book. They can run it back to 1420 and I'm still seeing an initial 5 down and nothing more but correction. Remember, topping is a process. How many bulls can you hear screaming "hell yeah!' as we run back to the 14teen teens?. Throw'em an anvil is what I'd say when we get up there.

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  36. In the grand scheme..... I'm shrugging my shoulders and waiting for more info.

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  37. Finally. made it here.....It appears the server handling the site is either down or hacked. many of you have already reached that conclusion. You guys are good......LOL Please try and alert as many of the other folks as you can reach that we are now here as opposed to there...... I will be back to check in a little later, got kid patrol and supper going now.....

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  38. is this what happens when I don't send a contribution?

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    1. Yessiree, so pony up the buckaroos...... Am thinking we all should dig in and pony up some cash. This outage could require some resources to repair..... So come on all y'all let's get it together and buy us a server.....This DRG from the phone....

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  39. yep, deepwave is doooownnnnn :-( anyway, the DOW has now gotten below the level where PL has his blue (1) on the SPX chart (1391 level). Hence, for the DOW, this cannot be a wave (4), with (5) still to come. However, it still can be "alt: 4", with "alt 5" per PL's black alternate count still to come. For the DOW to rule the alternate count also out, it needs to drop below 12961 (which would be the alt 1 on the DOW)... that's "only" 96 points from today's close... (today the DOW lost 118 points, so 96 is absolutely not impossible)

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  40. Cannot login here is screenshot:
    Forbidden


    You don't have permission to access /forums/ on this server.


    Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an
    ErrorDocument to handle the request.





    Apache Server at www.deepwaveanalytics.com Port 80
    Please pass on to Pretzel Thanks
    Blind Squirrel

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    1. Joe, we have sent the message. Not sure how we will know if and when PL gets it. I expect the man has his hands full at the moment. Pass the word. DRG from phone

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  41. Glad to see you're on top of things DRG... Yes sir, tribe takes presidence. Get on that "Chief runs a lot!" The sweat tent will be here waiting.

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  42. After wandering through a dust storm all day (whaaaah! No blog!) I tried to paste the ES overnight activity and the $SPX together. (Oh, no, she's crossing the beams!) Looks like we're in 4 of the First Turn Down, with 1 at 1406, 2 at 1416, 3 at 1403, 4 bouncing between 1400 and 1405. Those are $SPX numbers but the pattern works with the AH stuff from last night squeezed in there too.
    Time for the Market to take control away from the CBs.

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  43. sold TLT today at 125... thought that was all of 3 and didn't want to bank on fifth wave...standing aside... all K7 targets hit today on ES and looked like a LD plus... right where PL said "they" would make it a channel

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    1. DRG here, my reconciliation of TLT to SPX gives me a sense of a being in the three four transition of the three of one structure. I think we get the end of this and a quick move into the 5 of three to the larger degree EW 4 tomorrow. I think with sideways move today mimicking the sideways move of Monday/Tuesday morning that we are coming to the end of wave one in TLT. Gotta look at some charts later

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  44. They really dug their heels in at SPX 1400, didn't they?

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  45. think they ramp into EOM...wil look to short near Jackson Hole if set up is right...have a good night all.

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  46. made a little on aapl short but bolted when started looking like a flat...will short again.

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  47. Just had another website I visit for news get its audio show hacked and is down. Strange things happening. You think 1405 is it?

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  48. Really wanted to do something after a good day but just uncertain. Why throw away money? Hopefully PL will get us back online and I can get a better feel.

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  49. Nevermind!!!!! Duh, I was in such a rush I did not read your post!!!!

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  50. Lest I forget to say it : all 3 of Katzo's target hit today : 1407, 1404, 1398 ES. Go Katzo!

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  51. Ugh, figures this would happen today. Got about 200 other things going/fires to put out -- I have tech support working on the website though.

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  52. When it rains..... No worries brother. Were a resourceful bunch. We'll make due. You take care of you.

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  53. My "feeling", FWIW, is that the deep pockets are buying time (and up swings) to put themselves in better positions for the inevitable corrective action. So yes, we might go all the way back up to 1416 and a bit, but that's ok, it'll just be a Wave 2, to be followed by a big mean Wave 3 down. Patience, Miss Tessmacher...

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  54. Yeah, working on it. Unbelievable that this would happen today.

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  55. Yes K7, way to call em. I dont think K7 made it here yet. Forgiven is my name @deepwave.

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  56. aka Forgiven - I miss the cat avatar, and all the name changes :)

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  57. Not an attack -- server got overloaded. Might take a while to clean it up/clear it out though. I guess the monthly fees I pay for "unlimited bandwidth" and "unlimited storage" aren't actually "unlimited"... Must be Fed-Speak. :/

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  58. Glad it wasn't an attack. If it helps I would pay a monthly fee for service. I know this has been discussed before. Anything more on your potential expansion of services with Minyanville?

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  59. PL, take your time and focus your energy on your personal issues. Fortunately we have this channel still open and will make a good use of it in the meantime. Glad to see that so many had the same idea and managed to return 'home' and regroup here. This community is unbeatable! :-)

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  60. yeah, this is unfortunate. Hopefully it will be corrected soon. Best to all.

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  61. Sorry to c deep wave out like this, but we'll stand tall and next to you PL and continue here till it's all fixed. In the mean time, the DOW has now gotten below its blue (1) when copying the SPX count into the DOW, which corresponds to SPX 1391. The DOW is now only 96 points above invalidating this down move as PL's "alt 4" count. So it can't be a (4) with a (5) to come, at least for the DOW (which also didn't make a higher high, whereas the SPX did) so that's one count less on the table :-)

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  62. I have an independent IT guy working on the website. Hostgator (the server host) has been pretty much useless.

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  63. You said earlier, "I guess the monthly fees I pay for "unlimited bandwidth" and "unlimited storage" aren't actually "unlimited." " They should offer you a complimentary year of service. :)

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  64. Miss Katzo though, doesnt seem the same . Any one have a way to tell K7?

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  65. Haven't tuned into this forum in a while. Thought I'd see if anyone here has a better feel for WHICH path we're on.
    PL will offer his views, I hope, in the morning. If he gets time for sleep.
    My system is on the verge of giving 'top is in' signals on my weeklies, but its doing so JUST as we get to oversold on the dailies and hourlies.
    I have no real way to translate that state of affairs into an EW count with any certainty.
    But its either 1 down, with 2 up coming soon. Or 4 down, then 5 up (which could truncate).
    Either way, I am suspecting we backpedal next week for a few days, then all hell breaks loose late next week or the week after.
    PS -- I appreciate all the bells and whistles in the DeepWave forum, but I like to skim comments quickly and as much as disqus sucks, I really do prefer this compact format where I can see tons of comments quickly.

    Good luck all.
    PdL

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  66. Thank you to giarC,
    and thanks to N.C. :)

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  67. He's aware, I've been in contact with him.

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  68. Adjusted some of the settings on Disqus (back to how it used to be -- it apparently reset itself to the "Disqus 2012" on its own) while we're waiting for my IT guy and Hostgator to actually get DeepWave back up.  I cannot believe how much stuff is on my plate today...  :/

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  69. Yeah, now I'm me...PURRRRRR..........

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  70. It's still me....nice to be missed  :)

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  71. Or the ECB-Speak.....

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  72. take it easy PL, top´s are a progress, remember, so we manage..

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  73. Hey PL, you know you can call on us for help...
    Don't sweat this, we're okay - take care of the important things versus those urgent things.  

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  74. Seems we need to lighten the moooood around here - so in honor of Ben roaming Wyoming.

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  75. Republicans Consider Returning To Gold Standard: Real Or Red Herring?.....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/republicans-consider-returning-gold-standard-real-or-red-herring

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  76. Okay, we got the DeepWave site back up and running.

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  77. Thanks from all of us....

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  78. Apparently there's a clause buried in the fine print about how "unlimited" is actually *not* unlimited, much like the Fed speak in the article today.  It's limited by server CPU usage...

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  79. I agree, I believe all of us know the giving nature and kind heart you have, but as been said by others, we do have this place to come. You can see where we knew where to come. You and family are #1 and I believe you know that already and don't need our permission to tend to #1 first. If you aren't taken care of, how can you possibly and comfortably, give freely to others?

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  80. See how popular you've become, we gave them a CPU melt down, ROFL

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  81. I do like the quick surfing of Discus to follow specific threads in the daily thread, keeps the conversation together. But, I am liking DeepWave more because of the flexibility you have there really out weighs Discus IMO. :)

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  82. Yaaaay :D Thanks for everything PL!

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