Thursday, June 20, 2013

New Lows on Deck?

Yesterday, Bernanke let the market know that good news is bad, as continued economic improvement would mean the Fed is likely to start tapering asset purchases later this year, and could end purchases entirely by the middle of next year.  This is exactly what the equities market did not want to hear, since without the Fed's inflationary money printing, the actual cash value of the S&P 500 (SPX) is approximately twelve dollars and fifty-eight cents.

The dollar, on the other hand, was quite excited by this news, and rallied straight up in a rocket launch.

Interestingly, I suspect this scare will be the push needed to drive equities to the lower low I've felt the charts were suggesting was more likely to mark the wave iv bottom.  I think this press conference will embolden bears to step out of their caves for a bit, but the bottom line with Bullnanke's statements is that the QE money will still be flowing (for the time being), and that means continued liquidity for equities. 

Greed is a powerful emotion though, and I think it's more likely that the dip will still be bought, as there is yet no definite end in sight for the QE program.  There are hints it "may" end "if and when" the economy improves.  Of course, anything's possible, and maybe just the thought of QE ending will cause a rush for the exit, since no one wants to be the last one holding the bag.  But in my opinion, the charts still suggest the final long-term high isn't in yet.

But they do suggest that the much anticipated wave (2) high is.  I've seen a lot of confusion over how to label the recent rally, and I believe it represents another extended fifth wave, with a compressed (iv) and (v).  (When you trade Forex as much as I do, you learn to look for and recognize extended fifths.)

This wave looks like a textbook expanded flat with an ending diagonal c-wave in NQ (Nasdaq Futures).  In fact, in the private forums, I alerted everyone to this likelihood all the way back on Thursday, with the following statement:  "I think the new Globex lows in NQ in particular mark our ticket for a VERY high probability short after the market completely retraces the prior decline. Should make a marginal new high and then reverse to new lows."

The hourly chart continues to track well:

In conclusion, I believe it's quite likely that the wave (2) high is now in place.  Trade above 1654 would of course call that into question, but barring that, I'm now on the lookout for new lows.  Be aware that this is expected to be a third wave decline, which means it should be a strongly trending move, and dangerous for dip-buying. Trade safe.
Reprinted by permission, Copyright 2013 Minyanville Media, Inc.

1 comment:

  1. You came to this conclusion after the market tanked 360 points. Congratulations!