Friday, February 13, 2015


Back on February 2, the preferred count anticipated that there would be a break and whipsaw of 1988 SPX, and then a rally all the way back to 2064+.  From there, it anticipated that the 1980 lows were then likely to be revisited.  Yesterday, SPX closed a mere 24 points beyond the 2064+ target, but so far, the rally has defied any attempts to anticipate a top.

Last update suggested a "canary" for bears to watch, in the form of BKX, and the key level noted here proved to indeed be a solid tell that the rally had more steam left in it:

Worth noting is that NDX made a new high yesterday, thereby eliminating its most bearish count, but not all intermediate bear counts.  It hasn't broken out over its November highs quite yet, but bears should probably be cautious in the event that NDX can sustain a breakout:

SPX is very close to its all-time-high, but as of this moment, still trading just below.  Here again, a breakout would eliminate the most bearish count, but not all bear counts:

INDU, on the other hand, continues to lag SPX and NDX, and still has a ways to go to reach its all-time high.  This is interesting, because usually INDU leads SPX.

In conclusion, there's not much to do analytically until we see if SPX can break the ATH.  If it does, then the wave (2) count is off the table, but the B-wave count is not.  Frankly, there's something a little "off" about the current wave, and it has been almost impossible to count at a micro level.  It has been ripe with overlapping structures, and reminds me of the wave from 1988 to 2064 SPX.  This leads me to wonder if it is not the impulse we were expecting, but perhaps is instead another 3-wave rally. 

In any case, today should help answer some questions on the intermediate picture -- and until those questions are answered, there's not much more to add.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. Diamond pattern got busted to the upside. We are off to the races.