Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Since last update, SPX broke the all-time-high, which serves to eliminate the wave (2) count from consideration. It does still leave open the option of a complex B-wave into the new high. 2096-98 was noted as the textbook target for that pattern, and SPX closed Friday at 2096.99.
In the event the current rally is wave C of B, then there are roughly enough waves in place for a complete rally:
In conclusion, SPX went out on the highs, so there's nothing in the way of an impulsive decline yet to suggest a turn -- thus there is nothing to add any confidence to the possibility that wave C of B is complete. Bears should be aware that, in the event SPX can sustain this breakout, then this could turn into a trend-following wave; however, if the market turns from this zone, then bears have a decent shot at getting something started from here.
In other words, the market is in an important inflection zone, and bulls and bears alike will have to respect how SPX responds. The very first step for bears would be an impulsive decline from Friday's high, to help add confidence to the expanded flat scenario. Ideally, we'll have a bit more significant information by next update. Trade safe.
Posted by PretzelLogic at 4:30 AM