Thursday, February 19, 2015

SPX, INDU, TRAN, MID: Fractured Markets

I find it interesting that bulls seem to have claimed victory on SPX's new all-time high, given that SPX isn't exactly the only market that matters.  A number of major indices are lagging considerably, not the least of which is TRAN.  TRAN still hasn't reclaimed its last swing high, much less its 2014 highs:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn't broken out yet, either, which is interesting inasmuch as INDU usually leads SPX, not vice-versa.

SPX may have completed five waves of rally (which would mean a larger correction pending), though could still support another wave up.  As noted previously, the "easy" part of this rally was 1980 to 2064 -- the patterns have been a bit muddled since then:

Finally, the S&P midcaps (MID) present some interesting options:

(Note typo about the "blue" trend line, which should read "red" trend line.  I changed the colors after writing the annotations!)

In conclusion, bulls have claimed victory and seem to have settled back into complacency.  And who knows, maybe they're right to do so... but, given the fact that some important indices are still well-below their most recent major highs, it doesn't seem to me that the markets have signaled an all-clear just yet.  Trade safe.

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