Friday, March 13, 2015

SPX and INDU: Bulls Hold Important Support

In Wednesday's update, I wrote:

We're now into territory where the wave counts become open to a great deal of interpretation, and with nothing in the way of a basing pattern yet, it's difficult to map out the market's exact next move.  The preferred count has kept us on the right side of the trade for several weeks, and netted us roughly 50 points in SPX profits for the decline (to date) -- and sometimes it's tough to ask for much more than that...

Thus, when the wave counts get into territory like this, sometimes it's best to pay careful attention to the trend lines and support/resistance, and not do too much front-running in either direction. 

That session did some grinding in both directions, but by the close on Wednesday, SPX had reached its major uptrend line from the October lows, which I noted in our forums.  On Thursday, it reacted to that line with a solid bounce:

We're still in territory where the wave counts are a bit unclear.  The near-term chart below discusses some options:

INDU seems to be showing a little more strength than SPX, relative to its resistance zones, but did close in the neighborhood of multiple near-term resistance lines, so bulls face a test over the next couple sessions:

In conclusion, downside targets were captured and bulls finally showed that they haven't completely left the building yet.  Most markets are now back into the same "noise zone" territory they've been in since December.  My preferred targets of the past few weeks have all been captured, and my system isn't giving me any new actionable signals at this juncture, so for me, this is a "wait and see" moment for the market.  Trade safe.

1 comment:

  1. The SPX stopping at exactly the ED support line seemed "too perfect" to me. I wonder if you look at USD/Euro as that seems to be driving force. Armstrong is predicting Euro panic next Thur (maybe USD par). This could result in a new low. DJIA ED is around 17450 = SPX 2020 as possible low. ED still my favorite scenario with summer selloff as P4. A fall pickup in Europe economy could be good for stocks but bad for bonds. Still having problems navigating forum