Monday, March 16, 2015

SPX, INDU, NYA, NDX: Bulls Still Seeking Green for St. Patrick's Day

Friday saw a deep retrace of the previous rally, but managed to hold Wednesday's lows, thus leaving the options covered in Friday's update still on the table.  Like a politician's stance, the market remains ambiguous at the moment.

On another note, I've had the pleasure of enduring strep throat throughout the weekend, so, in keeping with that theme, today's update will be brief and painful.  Wait, that's not what I meant to say...

Since my downside targets were captured and my system has yet to generate new targets, I remain without conviction at the present time -- but I've drawn up a couple potential if/then targets via INDU's chart.  The one caveat I'd add to the bear target is that there is an intermediate trend line crossing just below 17,600 (one can see this line on an hourly chart -- simply connect the October lows with the February lows), so bears should at least stay cognizant of that zone as potential support if 17,600 fails.

Let's take a look at the larger inflection point, via NDX:

NYA's chart is interesting and often revealing, so I've used its daily chart for purposes of examining some of the bull options.  Bulls have quite a bit of ground to cover in order to regain their February glory, but nevertheless, let's take an early look at their potential IF they were to reclaim 11,142 in NYA.

The bear options, in the event of a continued decline, are for an obvious head and shoulders pattern or similar.  The scariest thing about this chart for bulls is the failed breakout and immediate whipsaw, and the collapse back into the noise zone.  For now, though, bulls are still holding the blue uptrend line.

Finally, there's literally nothing to add to Friday's SPX chart.  All I've done here is changed the bull count to red to make it a bit easier to spot.

In conclusion, since no key levels were broken or claimed on Friday, there's very little to add to Friday's update, which closed with:

...downside targets were captured and bulls finally showed that they haven't completely left the building yet.  Most markets are now back into the same "noise zone" territory they've been in since December.  My preferred targets of the past few weeks have all been captured, and my system isn't giving me any new actionable signals at this juncture, so for me, this is a "wait and see" moment for the market. 

As a side note, since I rarely do Tuesday updates:  Have a safe St. Patrick's Day.  In my opinion, that's about the most you can ask for from this particular holiday.  "Happy" St. Patrick's Day is just silly.  In fact, it's a good St. Patrick's Day if you manage to avoid getting broadsided by someone who's having a "Happy" St. Patrick's Day.

Also, if at all possible, avoid hanging around with bears on Tuesday -- they're not too fond of the color green.  Trade safe.


  1. Hello, would someone please send me a copy of he nomenclature used by Pretzel, eg, (1) intermediate, 1, minor, etc, Thx Sid