Friday, April 22, 2016

SPX Update: All the Marbles

Last update's preferred count showed SPX as still needing a fifth wave into the 2110-25 target zone, and Wednesday's market provided that.

This is a familiar position for bears:  We have a potentially complete wave structure, but as yet no larger impulsive decline to confirm a turn.  This means that there could still be another fourth and fifth wave to unravel -- and, in fact, that might fit the pattern slightly better.  But it isn't required, and we're into a price zone that has provided significant resistance on two prior occasions.

Way back near 1810, we knew that a rally of this magnitude was a distinct possibility, and I immediately began showing "Bull C" labels on the charts, up near 2116ish.  So, in my mind, all the rally's progress to this point means very little from a technical standpoint.  This price zone near the all-time-highs will provide the true test as to whether the bull market that began in 2009 is still underway or not.

The issue I have with this being the beginning of a major fifth wave isn't shown on this chart -- in fact, I haven't shown it at all in these updates, nor will I.  Suffice to say that if this were to be a major fifth wave, there are certain markers I'll be watching for before I shift footing.  As of yet, I'm still more inclined to think this is a second or (B) wave rally, and ultimately due to be retraced fully.

Near term, we could have completed ALL OF Bear (B)/2, but SPX could still support another fourth and fifth wave unravel.

In conclusion, the charts pretty much sum up my thoughts as well as I can -- basically, we're finally into the price zone that represents THE test for this market.  Trade safe.

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