Friday, May 6, 2016

SPX and BKX Updates: Make or Break Time

Last update concluded:

In conclusion, barring a miraculous stick-save by the bulls, Target 2 from a week ago looks like it's almost a given at this point, and lower targets are now appearing on the radar.  It's worth a reminder that, in the bigger picture, a break of the 1800 zone is still preferred.  The question is whether 2111 marks the completion of ALL OF Bull: C, or if there's to be one more minor new high.  As noted, the near-term pattern is beginning to look increasingly bearish; if that continues, the odds that ALL OF C is complete will rise accordingly. 

The next few sessions look like they're going to be make-or-break for the bulls.  Let's start with the big picture chart from March 14:

Next, let's examine how the near-term might provide warning for bears if bulls are going to get their act together:

Another look at SPX below:

Finally, BKX is approaching its first key overlap.  This overlap would help further stack the odds against the recent rally being blue wave v (from the first chart), which I have continued to doubt since day 1:

In conclusion, the next few sessions will likely answer the lingering question as to whether ALL OF C is complete or not.  Trade safe.

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