Wednesday, May 4, 2016

SPX and SPX Update: SPX Update

Today's title was brought to you by the Department of Redundancy Department (motto: "If we're being redundant, then please allow us to repeat ourselves!").

In Monday's update, I mentioned that the downward wave appeared incomplete, and thus a new low was probably still needed (along with a whole bunch of caveats in case I was wrong, as is my wont).  Shortly after Monday's close, I mentioned in our private forums that the rally appeared roughly complete -- and, from there, we gapped down directly at the open on Tuesday.  It appears we will gap down again today, and, presuming we break 2052 SPX today, that would leave mainly bearish options for the near-term.

The chart below outlines the two most apparent near-term options.  Both are bearish, but one is directly bearish, while the other would provide bears with another sell-op:

 The updated SPX 2-hour chart is below:

In conclusion, barring a miraculous stick-save by the bulls, Target 2 from a week ago looks like it's almost a given at this point, and lower targets are now appearing on the radar.  It's worth a reminder that, in the bigger picture, a break of the 1800 zone is still preferred.  The question is whether 2111 marks the completion of ALL OF Bull: C, or if there's to be one more minor new high.  As noted, the near-term pattern is beginning to look increasingly bearish; if that continues, the odds that ALL OF C is complete will rise accordingly.  Trade safe.   

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