Wednesday, September 20, 2017

SPX and Long-term Oil Update

Still no change in equities, so we have to continue presuming the bull count unless and until the bear count shows signs of life and gives us a reason not to.  It would do that by forming an impulsive decline.

From a big-picture standpoint, Crude Earl has been pretty uneventful for a while now, which actually fits the idea of a fourth wave.  Back in June of 2016, I noted that a fourth wave at this degree could "unfold over the course of a year or so," so this continued sideways grind isn't terribly surprising.

I'm updating the Oil chart because it looks like we're in the throes of red "or (2)" (from June of this year).  Blue c (not shown on the chart) of red "or (2)" looks like it may be unfolding as an ending diagonal, so I figured it might be helpful to readers to get a rough idea of how that would look (if that is indeed what's unfolding, anyway).  Thus I sketched that into the chart.

Hard to believe, but this is currently my oldest continuously-running chart that's had no material changes since I first published it.  It celebrated its sixth-year anniversary this month (!).  Long-time readers already know it was September 9, 2011 when I first publicly predicted that oil had topped, and turned, and was headed to 25.  And yes, I will toot my own horn about that until the day I die.  Like you wouldn't!

In conclusion, there's still nothing to add regarding equities.  Oil may be in the process of completing red (2), but if that is indeed taking the form of a diagonal, then it might still take a few weeks.  And of course, be aware that in the event oil sustained a breakout over 56, then we would have to consider the possibility of "alt. bull: C."  Trade safe.

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