Friday, September 22, 2017

SPX Update: Where a Banker Can Be a Banker...

We're just going to focus on the SPX chart today, since hopefully "everything we need to know" is on that chart.  There is a little bit of doubt in that regard, because this is not a terribly clean wave structure, but we'll try our best to work with what the market has given us.  Thus the seemingly-important levels are outlined on the chart below:

Frankly, I hope the market bounces north of 2480 to keep things straightforward, because none of us particularly want to see yet another expanded flat C-wave.  Why?  You may ask, especially if you're a bear.  Well, because C-waves are impulsive.  And if we get an impulsive decline, all the bears are going to want to view that as wave A/1 down, and thus hope for another big leg down -- because there will indeed be an off-chance that an impulsive decline from here would be not the end of the correction, but the start of a new one.

But it probably wouldn't be the start of a new one, because odds would favor it as a C-wave.  Yet all bears know that "odds were made to be beaten!" so they'll keep wanting to short it all the way up... but SPX will actually be on its way to 22,967.55, and bears will end up holding the bag again.

Not that I'm cynical, here in our 8th year at Fed HappyFunLand, Where a Banker Can Be a Banker.

Anyway, what was I saying?

In conclusion, bulls hold the edge unless and until the noted levels are broken.  If those levels are violated, then we do need to stay aware that the goofy unorthodox nature of the preceding pattern is still going to keep everyone on their toes.  I, for one, am really looking forward to the resolution of the current wave.  Trade safe.

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