Friday, November 17, 2017

SPX and INDU Updates

Last update, I was so certain that we'd rally up north of 2586 SPX that I drew that path on the SPX chart and the INDU chart -- and then, just to keep us on our toes, SPX dipped briefly below 2566 before rallying up into the B/(2) target zone.  I cannot even begin to express how difficult it becomes to predict a market that has made as much noise as this one, so please keep that in mind when we look at the projections below.

Let's start with INDU:

SPX would be expected to behave in a similar fashion:

In conclusion:  The bull alternate on both charts is that the decline/correction is entirely complete and we'll head straight on to new highs from here in a decent third wave.  I'm not favoring that -- if we were to make a new high, my first suspicion would be that it's still a B-wave (a second wave would be off the table).  So I'm still inclined to think we need at least one more wave down to complete this pattern -- and possibly more than one.

The biggest challenge is determining exactly WHAT this mess is trying to correct.  Due to the noise leading into the all-time-high, we may be correcting a higher degree wave than the conservative (C)/3 projection shown on the chart.  It's simply not clear, and we'll just have to take it as it comes.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment