Monday, November 20, 2017


So we have an interesting battle shaping up in the market.  Traditionally, the week of Thanksgiving is one of the most bullish weeks of the entire year.  But SPX appears to have formed an impulse down from 2590 -- so unless that's the c-wave of an expanded flat, it suggests another wave down is pending:

A couple readers have asked for an update on RUT, but the recent decline in RUT is "uncountable," so I don't have a strong opinion on whether it's complete or not.  It is worth noting that the black trend channel is what arrested the decline, so if that fails, it would probably suggest some downside follow-through:

In conclusion, the most recent decline from 2590 SPX was almost certainly impulsive, so that suggests another leg down will follow the next bounce.  Countering that is the fact that Thanksgiving week is traditionally very bullish -- along with the alternate bull count for a completed correction at 2557.  Nevertheless, I can only "trade what I see," and what I see is an impulsive decline from 2590 to 2578, and nothing concrete to make me doubt that.  Thus bulls need to claim 2591 to trump the apparent impulse and its suggestion of another wave down.  Trade safe.

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