Monday, December 11, 2017

Market Stil a Pigsty

Wave counts at time frames beyond five minutes are still too muddy to bank on, so today's we're going to look at a long-term trend line chart, which may offer some clues heading forward.

The middle dashed black line (most recently tagged at the 2624 low) is interesting, inasmuch as it runs back about two years and has been a consistent support/resistance zone.  Most recently, of course, it acted as support.

Near-term, we have a couple potential basing patterns unfolding in INDU and NYA:


I'm not certain how "good" those patterns will end up being, but it's not uncommon to see them form just before a market takes off. 

This type of yuck market is not surprising, considering that  the much-anticipated Fed Fun Day is coming up in the middle of the week -- wherein the Federal Reserve is expected to jack interest rates by just enough basis points to qualify as "greater than zero."  The market often goes into a holding pattern ahead of such announcements, just in case the Fed comes out and says, "We're raising rates to 57 percent!  Surprise, suckers!"  while laughing maniacally.  Or in case they say, "We're going to launch another QE program, and will be buying up any assets that aren't moving.  And we mean that literally -- as in any assets that consist of inanimate objects, such as The World's Largest Ball of Twine.  And William Shatner's kidney stone."

The market knows it needs to be ready for such surprises, because we've had, you know, SO MANY from this Fed (/sarcasm), and investors just don't want to commit ahead of time.

Anyway, in the meantime, the market has been enjoyable and predictable for so long now that you just knew they needed to throw in some weirdness at some point, in order to keep us from collectively raising enough trading capital to actually buy the Federal Reserve and rename it something demeaning.  Also, we would staff it entirely with pigs.  Then we would require the pigs wear suits, and we would force reporters to address the head pig as "Mr. ChairPig, sir. Or madam."  (Because we don't know how to tell pig genders, so we'd make them use both.) 

That seems somehow fitting (no offense to pigs).

Sorry, got off on a tangent there.  I think the point was:  This market is still a mess, so trade safe.

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