Friday, December 15, 2017


Last update suggested that odds favored that at least one more wave up was still remaining, and we did indeed resolve higher.  The question now is whether we've completed a larger degree wave structure, and there are some hints that perhaps we have.

RUT may be acting as a canary here, inasmuch as it seems to be pointing lower for the time being:

SPX is still virtually "uncountable," but the complex iv would fit the current wave structure quite well:

From a technical perspective, it's not impossible to rule out the possibility that SPX has formed a subdividing bull nest, with the wave labeled as "or B" above actually being wave 1 of a new rally, but that seems unlikely, given how overbought many markets are.. 

Interesting to note that NDX did get another wave higher as expected, but did not break its prior ATH.  If this pattern is a B/2 rally, then it could likewise be complete or nearly so:

In conclusion, I'm still not terribly fond of the current wave structure, which might fit the idea that it's a B-wave for a more complex IV.  B-waves are often quite difficult to read and predict.  Trade safe.

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