Wednesday, December 20, 2017

SPX, RUT, COMPQ, INDU: Intermediate Top in the Cards for the First Time in a LONG Time...

Everything seems to be aligning, so I suspect we're in (or have completed) the final leg of this rally before a very significant correction.  I've been consistently long-term bullish for a long time now, but it looks like I'm finally going to need to hang up my bull horns -- for at least a while -- in the not-too-distant future.

Let's start with COMPQ, which is providing long-term perspective on this whole thing.  I've noted in the past that "SPX would be expected to follow a similar path" -- please note that SPX is in a different wave count, but that's irrelevant.  It does not need to be in the exact same count to follow a similar path.  I would love to see COMPQ hit the final 7425 target, but it's not required and it's already reached the ballpark zone...

RUT's long tem chart suggests we're either "there" or nearly there:

RUT's near-term chart has tracked well... if it continues to (the original projection was for another leg down), then that would jive with the potential top on the LT chart (note this chart below is not intended to be a comprehensive long-term chart or projection, just a near-term discussion):

INDU provides some near-term perspective, for either a b-wave, or a fifth wave extension.  Is it also possible that INDU just topped?  Well, it's not impossible that blue iii is ALL OF red 5...  we'll have to take it as it comes here...

SPX has the "Bear: V" label in use for the first time in a long time.  Here again, it's not my ideal world, but it is technically possible that ALL OF 5 is now complete.  I would really rather see at least one more leg up, though... but if we get close to calling the high of this move, I'll be pretty happy, considering we've stayed bullish through 95% of the rally and are only now switching focus.  And considering that 99% of the investing public is still rabidly bullish.  Along those lines, tons of big-name analysts just raised their 2018 projections -- so we're very much bucking the trend to even be discussing tops.  On the flip side of that coin:  It's one thing for the "perma-bears" to discuss tops (that's what they do) but it's wholly another to consider that we've been bullish and have captured the lion's share of this rally -- more than 200 points since September-- so far.

Point being, we may or may not hit the exact top to the penny, but if we can beat the big-name analysts, in addition to the perma-bears (who we've already beaten), then I'll be pretty happy with those results.

In conclusion, we seem to finally be in the ballpark zone where this entire rally could complete, meaning an intermediate top may be near.  Ideally, I would like to see at least one more push higher, but it's no longer a requirement, as it has been in the past.  Trade safe.

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