Friday, December 22, 2017

INDU Update: Near-term Holiday Fun

There's nothing much to add since the prior update, except to note that it appears we may be undergoing a more complex near-term wave at the moment.  The challenge is that this wave suggests more downside over at least the near-term, but there are at least three different wave degrees which could be impacted, and I'm not certain which one to focus on.

Accordingly, we're just going to look at INDU's chart and let that lead the way for the rest of the market (as INDU often does):

We can see that the most likely outcome is further near-term downside.  Sustained trade north of the ATH would, of course, call that into question and thus nullify the rest of this discussion -- but presuming that doesn't happen, the question (if we break the blue a-wave low) will be:  Which wave degree are we correcting here?  If we sustain a breakdown at the blue i peak, then we're probably in red 4, though it does not need to stretch as low (or remain as high!) as shown -- the area shown is simply the most common zone for a fourth wave at that degree.

If we do continue lower (as I'm leaning toward over the near-term), then bears will be able to hope that ALL OF 5 completed at the most recent all-time high -- but if that's the case, it probably won't be readily apparent.  Nevertheless, it's a possibility to consider.

In conclusion, the near-term now suggests at least a bit more downside is in the cards, with the possibility of more than "a bit."

In other news, the Christmas holiday is upon us, which means the market will be closed on Monday the 25th.  As the result of some family travel issues, it's unlikely I will be able to publish an update on Wednesday the 27th, but I will if I can.

Beyond that, due to certain life-altering events that transpired in my life on Christmas Eve many years ago, Christmas is always a time of contemplation for me personally, and it's become something of "a blog Christmas tradition" to link to a piece I published in 2013, titled:  A Christmas Story -- Reflections on What Matters.

I wish everyone a safe and happy holiday, and whether you read the above linked piece or not, I would encourage everyone to take a moment to consider something my late father once told me, dozens of years ago:  "People are really all there is in this life."  Sometimes in the seemingly-endless quest to maintain "stuff, security, and sanity," it's easy to forget what's important -- especially in that people are both "all there is," and often our greatest source of challenges in life. 

Merry Christmas to all.  Trade, and be, safe.

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