Friday, January 5, 2018

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update we looked at a detailed micro count, and I very slightly leaned toward the interpretation that we might have a more complex flat (ultimately still due to resolve higher), but while the micro count was correct, the interpretation of it as a flat was not.  It was instead the noted WXY.  Luckily, that was obvious immediately upon the open (as I noted live in our forums).

On the bright side, I'm happy that I did have the micro count correct, which was no easy task in itself.  WXY's are always a pain, because the double-three nature means they can mimic many other patterns:

Bigger picture, we're getting closer to the long-term target in COMPQ, and again, we'd expect all markets to (more or less) "rally together" or "decline together."

SPX is about to tag another channel line:

In conclusion, the larger wave structure is finally reaching the inflection point of a potentially complete fractal, but -- due to the potential for continued fifth wave extensions -- we will continue awaiting a larger impulsive decline before trying to call a top, which is an approach that has served us well for a while.  Trade safe.

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