Wednesday, January 3, 2018

SPX Update: One More Trick Up Its Sleeve?

So, we've been anticipating another new all-time-high in SPX was still due, and we finally got it... but the market may yet have another trick up its sleeve.

Let's get right to the near-term SPX chart to understand why I say this:

Due to the complexity of the prior wave, I cannot rule out the possibility that wave v of 5 has already begun, but I am a bit more inclined to lean toward the increasingly-complex flat (red ABC) on the chart above.  Thus if the market sustains its breakout, we'll assume the fifth wave is underway; if it doesn't, we'll assume the more complex flat is underway.

Bigger picture, we should be approaching the final fifth before a correction, but please understand that this approach is only structural at this exact moment.  If this fifth wave extends like the last one did, then the price high could still be a ways off.  We'll just have to track it in real-time to determine that.

In conclusion, we did get a new ATH as expected, but, to paraphrase the first Star Wars, "this may not be the fifth wave you're looking for."  Due to complexity, though, it's far from clear (especially since it's basically the same structure we'd have for a WXY), but we should have an answer to that question fairly directly.  Trade safe.

No comments:

Post a Comment