Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Late Big Picture Update -- Crash Now or Crash Later?

This update is much, much later than I intended.  I overslept due to perpetual exhaustion.  I did this chart Tuesday night, and intended to publish it earlier -- but since it prefaces the big picture, a few folks on the forum have requested I publish it anyway.

This is INDU, but SPX should follow a similar count.  If this count is correct, that is.

My best guess is that we're going to retest the zone around the mini-crash low at some point in the upcoming sessions.  If bulls are lucky, we'll bounce from there in a large c-wave, to complete ALL OF B/2 before the real fun starts (for bears).  This is speculation based on how the market has performed during past similar moves -- there is really nothing in the chart that can allow me to predict such a move though.

So, please be aware of this next point...

The most bearish option is that B/2 is entirely complete already, in which case we're headed toward the mid 2400's (on SPX) next.  Because there are potentially three complete rally waves, this option is technically viable.  I'm guessing that fate will intercede and make this a large flat (blue path -- again, purely based on past similar moves).  But please remain cognizant that if fate does not intercede on behalf of bulls, then we're already in C/3 -- and third waves are crash waves. 

In other words: a crash, more or less directly from here, is entirely within the realm of possibility.  Sustained trade south of the A/1 low could be absolutely devastating to the market.

The most bullish option is that we're still heading higher, directly toward red B/2.  Bulls of course need to reclaim the most recent swing high to give them any hope of that option.

In conclusion, I suspect we're headed toward blue "(b)?" on the chart above, one way or another.  If and when we get there (assuming), then we'll have to try to determine if the blue "(c)?" rally is going to come to the rescue of bulls or not.  If it does not, then this market is likely very close to embarking on a crash wave.

Incidentally, there is a near-term bull option where we could rally all the way back up to 2745-54 (with 2752 as the "perfect world" target) before heading lower again.  If that were to occur, then shorts against 2755ish would be a pretty solid risk/reward.  But that's definitely NOT trading advice -- please consult your broker, your lawyer, and possibly even your Aunt Matilda before doing anything in the market, because there is always the risk of significant loss of capital. Trade safe.

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