Friday, February 23, 2018

SPX and INDU: No Material Change

There's no material change from the prior update -- but the near-term pattern has been more fun than a barrel of radioactive waste from Chernobyl, so I'm including a few notes on the S&P 500's (SPX) near-term pattern.

I've stared at this chart long enough to give myself a headache, but I still have a difficult time finding a count that suits the very beginning of this wave to my satisfaction.  My best guess is that it's a nested bearish 1-2 pattern off the 2754 high -- but if it continues to chop around (which it very well may), then it will be possible that the expected resolution lower would culminate with a c-wave instead of a third wave.  Either way, I suspect this pattern is not complete yet.

Bigger picture, there's no change to the most recent update:

In conclusion, while there's no change to the big picture, the near-term pattern has left itself the option to turn into a chop zone.  I've only chosen to represent the two near-term options that seem the most likely, but the mess heading into today has certainly left other options still on the table.  The only thing that seems clear about the pattern is that it's probably not complete at yesterday's low, so immediate, significant new highs from here seem unlikely.  Trade safe.

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