Friday, April 27, 2018

SPX Update: A Gray Market

Last update was still expecting the wave pointed lower, and while we made a minor new low, we fell 12 points shy of the "ideal" target in the 2590's.  One look at the big picture chart revealed why:

That long-term trend line is likely a key level bulls need to hold going forward.  My first inclination is still that the most recent rally to "4" was corrective, but it remains a bit unclear, so I'm borderline neutral at this moment, with a very slight bearish lean.  I haven't updated the chart below because Stockcharts deletes all my annotations every time I attempt to:

If the rally since 2612 is corrective, then it may be very near completion, as there are roughly enough waves in place (would look better with a new high above 2676).  If it's not, of course, then it's not (profound, I know).

In conclusion, this is a challenging spot and one where understanding one's risk/reward is the critical factor in determining one's trades.  This simply isn't a clear-cut chart at the moment, so please take my "slight bearish lean" with a grain of salt.  Trade safe.

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