Wednesday, May 2, 2018

SPX and Oil Updates

Last update noted:

If the rally since 2612 is corrective, then it may be very near completion, as there are roughly enough waves in place (would look better with a new high above 2676). 

The market indeed made a new high above 2676, then reversed fairly strongly, indicating that there were indeed enough waves in place.  The decline from 2682 is clearly impulsive, however, there is some question in my mind as to whether that's wave c of an expanded flat off the high, which would actually be a near-term bullish pattern (if that's the case). The difficult thing with this pattern is that the market could run beyond 2682 and -- as long as it stalled below 2718 -- it could remain bearish at the larger time frames. 

Thus 2718 is the first truly informational price level -- and some questions in regards to the near-term seems fitting for a Fed day.

I'd also like to update the long-standing Crude Oil chart, which I haven't needed to update since November 2017.  At that time we discussed that if oil could sustain a breakout over 58, it would likely head to 70-72 -- and that target has finally been effectively captured:

In conclusion, the levels bulls need to claim in SPX appear reasonably clear, and I'm inclined to maintain my slight bearish lean unless and until they claim those levels.  In fact, my first instinct is that yesterday's low will likely be broken to the downside in the coming sessions. Keep in mind that the most bearish count at this juncture is a nest of first and second waves lower, and that the third wave is typically the longest and strongest wave. In other words, bulls should be very cautious if there are any sustained breakdowns at the recent swing lows, as that could be the precursor to a strong sell-off. Trade safe.

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