Friday, July 13, 2018

INDU and [chart not loading] Updates

Stockcharts is pulling some weird glitch where it won't let me update the SPX chart, but there's no material change there since last update anyway.  It did let me update the INDU chart, so let's look at that:

We can see that INDU was indeed the tell, warning bulls and bears alike to expect further grind, as I noted back on June 11.  It likewise stalled right where black "or (c)" was expected to complete, and has not declined any further since then.  The one concerning thing for bears about this chart is that IF INDU does head all the way north of red Y, where will that put SPX?  SPX is already above its similar high, so if INDU goes that route, it will be interesting to see if SPX can retest or break its all-time high in the process.  A lot can happen between now and then, though, so we'll see.

In conclusion, the bottom line is that, while I've continued to lean longer-term bearish, there hasn't been a solid sell signal since way back in March.  That signal led to the decline to 23.3K, where we were alert to the possibility of a bottom -- but since then, the pattern has kept near-term calls very speculative.  It's still a bit challenging to see how INDU escapes this mess without eventually breaking that 23.3K low, but the near-term pattern has remained a veiled chop zone ever since, and we can never entirely rule out the possibility that the market will find some way to turn bullish again. 

Thus all I can continue to do is what I feel like I've been doing for an eternity here:  Advocate patience until things clarify once again.  Trade safe.

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