Wednesday, July 11, 2018

SPX Update: A Ghastly Market

Let me just say this and get it off my chest:  Since the beginning of April, the pattern in SPX has been absolutely ghastly.  To be fair, we were probably a bit spoiled heading in, having rode the extended fifth rally higher for several hundred points during the second half of 2017, then hitting the top almost to the day, then riding the fast and brutal decline, and just generally catching most everything right up until April.

On the bright side, I haven't tried to aggressively call much since then, either -- so at least I haven't been screaming for any strong action at all during this time.  Which, while boring, at least isn't costly.

Anyway, here's where the pattern seems to sit now, but it's still leaving more near-term questions than it's answering:

In conclusion, this has been a difficult pattern to predict for the past few months, but that's the way this game is played, and everything could become crystal clear in a single session.  Until things clarify again, all we can really do to is what I always advocate at such times: Watch for an impulsive decline as a potential reversal signal, and try not to buck the trend too much before we get one.  Trade safe.

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