Wednesday, December 12, 2018

SPX and BKX Updates: Near-term Decision Time

It's near-term decision time for the market, as it has rallied to (and so far stalled at) the first meaningful resistance zone.  The next few sessions could set the tone into the end of the year.  Bulls primary hopes remain for a near-term rally, because both potentials are bearish over the intermediate term.

BKX came very close to capturing my first downside target, so in the event SPX can sustain a breakout, then BKX bears may want to protect/capture some of the 13% profit they've earned over the past two months.

In conclusion, futures suggest SPX will open near the black trend line on the first chart -- if SPX is again rejected soundly at that line, it could suggest a strong sell-off will begin.  If bulls can instead sustain a breakout, then bears should probably demonstrate near-term caution, as the larger red "or (2)?" would open up as one (of several) options.

In all cases, it's difficult to see any type of sustainable bottom in place -- at best, bulls get a Santa Rally before another large leg down.  At worst, things break down immediately.  All roads continue to appear to lead down over the longer term.  Trade safe.

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