Monday, December 10, 2018

SPX Update: Bounce or Break?

The market has remained range-bound since late-October (though it's a large range), and is currently retesting the October lows.  This, combined with the pattern (which could be an ABC decline (black on chart below) or a nasty bear nest (blue)) means we're in "bounce or break" territory.

RUT (not shown) has already broken its October lows, which suggests that even if we bounce, the red "or (2)" that's been on the chart for a while is probably the correct count, and a bounce would merely forestall the nasty 3rd wave decline.

In conclusion, this is a pretty big near-term inflection point -- but the intermediate pattern continues to suggest lower prices over the longer term.  Trade safe.

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