Wednesday, May 29, 2019

SPX Update: Bears to Market: "Pay Us Now, or Pay Us Later"

Last update, I wrote:

On the chart, I then made reference to "complex corrections" -- this is because that the 2800-09 zone is an inflection zone. There is a possibility for a complex corrective 2/B that runs back toward 2900-30 before the next leg down begins in earnest. At present, I'm not favoring that, but instead suspect a more direct bearish resolution, but we can never rule out complex corrections (and can rarely predict them -- corrective waves by nature are inherently less predictable than impulse waves), so they should always at least be considered as a possibility. 

Since then, we have resolved lower directly, so that was a hit -- but I was primarily basing that call on the pattern off that low, which suggested a b-wave that needed fairly rapid resolution.  I do want to note that the more complex correction has become a bit more of a toss-up now.  I've shown that option in a bit more detail on the INDU chart below (black path):

Bigger picture, at present, all roads still appear to point lower.  The chart below only shows the most direct path for simplicity, but complex corrective options still apply, obviously.

SPX is in a similar position, with the same options as INDU:

In conclusion, it appears likely the market will remain intermediate bearish for the foreseeable future (until targets are reached).  The main question is whether that will happen directly, or if bulls can pull out a quick misdirection bounce before heading lower again -- but bears do appear to have a solid hold on the overall trend, at least for now.  Trade safe.

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