Friday, May 24, 2019

SPX Update: First Downside Target Captured

Last update was as unambiguous as I ever get, and was titled "Bears on Deck?"  In that update, I wrote:

There is potential for a large move down over the next few sessions.  SPX discusses initial targets.

Target 1 in SPX was 2800-09, which was captured yesterday.  On the chart, I then made reference to "complex corrections" -- this is because that the 2800-09 zone is an inflection zone.  There is a possibility for a complex corrective 2/B that runs back toward 2900-30 before the next leg down begins in earnest.  At present, I'm not favoring that, but instead suspect a more direct bearish resolution, but we can never rule out complex corrections (and can rarely predict them -- corrective waves by nature are inherently less predictable than impulse waves), so they should always at least be considered as a possibility.

We're just going to focus on the SPX chart today.  I've sketched-in the "or 2/B" potential:

In conclusion, bears captured their first downside target, and, presuming they hold the key upside levels, we will assume a more directly bearish resolution.  If they can't, then bears do need to be aware of the complex corrective potential.  Again, barring that, we're likely looking at a downward trending market over the coming week and/or beyond.  Trade safe.

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