Wednesday, February 5, 2020

SPX and INDU: "More of a Wrench"

Last update discussed the potential for a bounce to begin immediately, but theorized that such a bounce would probably result in another wave down.  We've had a massive bounce since, and today is likely to open near the all-time high, which is going to make things a little tricky.  One ongoing possibility is for the low in SPX to be a b-wave low instead of an impulse, which would put the market in a complex 3-3-5 flat.  Such a flat could make a new all-time high, then reverse not too long after and retest the recent low.  (If SPX stalls shy of the all-time high, that would keep the impulsive decline on the table).

INDU turned right at the 3/C inflection point, which also leaves similar options.

In conclusion, the wave I discussed in detail last update -- blue 4 -- may throw more of a wrench into things than I had initially anticipated.  If that wave is indeed a b-wave, it opens up the potential for any new all-time high to be followed by a fairly direct reversal back toward the recent low.  (And the caveat:  In the event that SPX clears the all time high on increasing momentum, then we'll have to call all near-term bear cases into question, but we'll burn that bridge if we come to it.)  Of course, if SPX stalls shy off the all-time high, then that would make things more simple for bears (and make this test of the high an obvious short op)... but we're so close to it that a discussion of other options was well-warranted.  Trade safe.

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