Monday, February 3, 2020

SPX and INDU: Shift

Last update discussed the importance of last Monday's low, and on Friday, bears busted that low.  This creates what appears to be an impulsive decline, at least in SPX (second chart), which suggests that there will be at least one more leg down after the next bounce.

We'll start off with INDU, which suggested from the start that Monday's low would ultimately fail, though bulls ran it so incredibly close to the key overlap that I began to question my initial read.  It turns out that read was correct.

While INDU has a lot of noise in its chart, SPX appears cleaner:

In conclusion, we now have to favor bears for at least one more leg down.  Because there are multiple valid interpretations of where the minute 4th wave high (blue 4) lands, it's unclear if the current decline is still unfolding, or if it will begin a second wave bounce immediately, so we'll simply have to play the short-term as it unfolds.  Bigger picture, though, we're unlikely to be at a significant bottom just yet.  Trade safe.

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