Monday, April 6, 2020

SPX Update: No Material Change

For once, there's not much to add!  From a near-term perspective, I laid out the 2445-55 target back on Wednesday, and that was captured.  I reiterated why 2447 (the low) was a good inflection, and that has held, leading to an opening rally today.  Bears do have one more near-term option, shown below as the alternate count in black:

Assuming 2641 is claimed, the preferred count will be confirmed -- but I suspect bears will show up with more conviction shortly thereafter.  (THAT much is speculation at this point, though, so bears may want to await an impulsive turn, in case the fifth wave extends or similar.)  The above thoughts are part of what led me to show the chart below as my "best guess" projection back on Wednesday.  So far, so good, but don't get too married to this:

In conclusion, the first target zone has done its job as an inflection, but the wave COULD still stretch lower if it so chooses.  The zone near today's open (plus a bit) will likely be the inflection for the alternate count shown on the first chart.  Beyond that, no change from the past few updates.  Trade safe.

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