Wednesday, April 8, 2020

SPX Update: Preferred Count Confirmed

First off, it's worth a quick mention that the preferred count, as originally published (here) last Wednesday (last Tuesday on the forums), came through with flying colors, as the market not only bottomed at the preferred red "C?" label, but then went on to make new highs (by a lot, actually), thus confirming the read of a B-wave high:

Yesterday's rally was almost entirely accomplished in the overnight futures, with cash selling off quickly after the market opened:

There are some interesting things going on in the bigger picture, starting with this:


In conclusion, yesterday's futures low (around 2630 cash, plus/minus) is probably the first near-term inflection zone on the downside.  On the upside, the green channel (currently near yesterday's high) and the black channel (both on the 2nd chart) may be the next zones to watch.  While I'd love to see a decline from here back toward 2447, bears do first need to claim the noted big picture back-test to get anything going, and it's at least possible the wave will require a new high to complete.  At the moment, the market is in near-term limbo, which is not uncommon after a big winning trade like we just had.  Trade safe.

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