Friday, July 31, 2020

SPX Update: But INDU is More Interesting

Last update suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell "to the People" would use the word "tools" during the upcoming Fed announcement, and that was a hit, with one forum member ("porkchop") coming up with an unofficial count of (9) uses of the word.

As for the market, if we can call it that, SPX has continued range-bound since last update.  SPX did finally briefly whipsaw the vaunted blue line, but it failed to claim the price low, which led to yet another small bounce, still within the range so far.  This chart is uninteresting and uninformative, so we're going to skip over this and focus on INDU next.

INDU seems to be where the more interesting patterns lie:

As we can see, the solid overlap of lower prices on INDU is suggesting either a completed WXY correction (probably the best fit as long as 27.1K holds), or an ending diagonal in formation.  (I also can't rule out a massive bull nest, but my incredulity meter gives that low odds, because it would lead to a big sustained rally from here.  I suppose anything's possible, though, but not even a consideration as long as bears hold the 27.6K zone (not a typo)).

In conclusion, while SPX can run a little higher if it needs, INDU suggests the market is still in an inflection zone.  I think for the time being we're going to focus on INDU as the better tell.  Trade safe.

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