Monday, August 3, 2020

Market Update: An Alarming Chart, and INDU

Friday was an interesting day, with the market dropping quickly lower early in the session, then reversing strongly to regain all of that lost ground by the close.  Take a look at this alarming chart:

Did you know this was happening?

I sure didn't.

It appears that hundreds of people are killed each year by getting tangled in their bedsheets -- and, if we firmly ignore the old rule that "correlation is NOT causation," then we are forced to conclude that US Skiing Facilities are profiting wildly from this travesty.

Where is the outrage?  When will Congress finally act?  Yet our leaders again remain silent.

Anyway, sorry, just a little "useless correlation" related humor there (as Nassim Nicholas Taleb once said, "Not only is correlation not causation, correlation is not even correlation.")

Last update, we discussed how INDU might be a better tell, at least for the longer-term, and on Friday, INDU held the inflection level I had outlined and then bounced along with SPX:

I'd put up a chart of SPX, but it's not going to tell us anything at this point anyway.  It does appear from the overnight futures action that SPX may finally break above its most recent high, so do be aware that if bulls can HOLD that breakout, then there is at least an option for a new micro bull nest to run the market strongly higher for a time.  If that were occurring, we'd expect to see the breakout not only hold, but also to see the rally accelerate over the near-term.  If the breakout doesn't happen (SPX could hold the high), or happens and then whipsaws (and/or fails to gain steam), then bears stay in the near-term game.  Trade safe.

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