Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Market Update: Bears Running Out of Real Estate

Last update, we looked at an alarming chart, because the market still hadn't done anything (for seemingly months on end).  But now, it finally has -- possibly thanks to that chart (don't rule this out) -- as SPX (at least) has broken out over its prior swing high.  And it does seem to have some momentum behind its breakout, so bears are advised to remain cautious unless/until there is an impulsive decline.  That said, our "canary," which is INDU, has not quite managed the same feat yet:

However, we can see from the INDU chart that if it, too, breaks out, there may be problems for the proposed diagonal count.

Thus, in conclusion, bears are advised to tread very cautiously in the event INDU does sustain a breakout.  Despite my prior incredulity, we do have to respect the raw pattern potential for a micro third wave launch here (although another head-fake followed by a complex correction wouldn't be too surprising, either).  Trade safe.

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