Monday, August 24, 2020

SPX Update: This Bull is a Bear

First off, I did work on the extended Supercycle piece I've been working on for a while -- but I didn't finish it.  I may never finish it.  I have a pretty good idea of what I want to say, but I'm wrestling with how to say it.  Honestly, I don't think I've ever wrestled with a piece as much as I've wrestled with this one.  There's no good way to talk about things.

As far as the market goes, last update noted that INDU had given a traditional warning sign, but that I was skeptical of it thanks to the Fed.  As it turns out, the Fed is going to buy their way out of it (again).  I've said it before, but this market reminds me a lot of 2012, where it just keeps grinding higher in the absolute ugliest way possible.  I had a heckuva time counting the market for several months that year, too.

This is why, outside of my big picture outlook that predicted the crash to 2100+/- SPX, followed by a recovery to new all-time highs, there hasn't been much to latch on to in this market.  I can tell you that it has been steamrolling a lot of people's signals, though.  

The Fed is warping everything.

Because I've been doing this long enough to know when a market isn't behaving, for today, I drew up a whole new chart.  I think for now we just focus on the basics and avoid the fancy stuff.  There's no room for nuance in this market right now.  Maybe that changes tomorrow.  When the character changes, I'm sure we'll be on top of it, as we almost always are.

(Note: Typo.  "So far" is supposed to be "So for..."  So far, so for!)

So, in conclusion, for now, we'll just take what the market gives us in broad strokes until such a time as it lends itself to more nuanced calls.  Trade safe.

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