Friday, August 21, 2020

SPX and INDU: Will a Traditional Warning Signal Mean Anything in a Nontraditional Market?

Let's get right to the meat of the title:  INDU gave a signal that is, traditionally, something of a warning sign (at least for the near-term).  I guess we'll see if that means anything in this Bizzaro-world market:

SPX has now tagged the May target "to the point":

In conclusion, in most markets, I would take INDU's break as a warning sign.  In this market, with the Fed buying everything that isn't nailed down, things are a little unusual to say the least.  So I guess we'll see if it means what it usually means... but if nothing else, it should at least serve as a near-term caution for bulls unless INDU can reclaim the August high directly.  Trade safe.


p.s.-- I'm getting closer to finishing my piece discussing/diagnosing some of America's (Supercycle-related?) ailments.  I got a good bit written last night, with the voice in my head coughing up Alec Baldwin from Glengarry Glen Ross to push me past my hesitations.  ("Let's talk about something important!")  

(Then in response to my considerably-long list of internal objections:  "Well I'm going anyway.")

Some things just need to be discussed, even when it might be easier not to discuss them.  For those interested, here's the last piece I wrote about it:  Is America Approaching the End of a Supercycle Rally?

The new piece is maybe halfway done, so there's a chance I'll finish it this weekend.  Stay tuned.

No comments:

Post a Comment