Monday, September 21, 2020

SPX Update: Bear Lean Proves Correct

Last few updates noted I was leaning toward the bear counts by a slim margin, and Friday's action (plus today's pending gap down open) will validate that lean.

It also turns out that SPX's break back below the blue pivot on the daily chart below, noted a couple weeks ago (and several times since), was in fact as significant as it appeared at the time:

The targets suggested by that chart appear to line up reasonably well with a classic "C=A" target based on the current wave counts:

OEX proved to be a good canary (not much to say about it beyond noting that, as OEX and SPX tend to track together pretty well):

Finally, the hourly trend line chart has also been in agreement with the daily chart (and with the current counts), and proved particularly valuable for nailing the top on Wednesday:

Frankly, given how bastardized this market is (with the endless Fed intervention), I'm a little surprised myself at how well all these charts have worked over the past month.

In conclusion, the previously-slightly-favored bear count has come/is coming to pass -- the next question the market will need to answer will be the question of whether bulls can hold the decline at an ABC, or if bears can turn this decline into a larger impulse, which would indicate a bigger trend change that could run into the election or beyond.  In both cases, more downside appears to be needed for the near-term.  We'll tackle that next question as the pattern develops.  Trade safe.  

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