Friday, September 18, 2020

SPX and OEX Update

On Wednesday, Jerome Powell took questions from high school students while standing in his basement in front of a blue curtain and wearing a tie that experts agree "was probably best described as some shade of purple or lavender or something."  He used the word "tools" (by my count) upwards of 27,000 times, which shocked the market into a brief tailspin.  (Purple is, of course, the tie color that -- when combined with the term "tools" -- triggers that type of action, as I think most of us already knew.)

Powell then promised (and here I'm quoting directly) "to do everything in his Powell" (he loves this pun, even though most of us are sick of it by now) "to assure that the Fed will use its tools, which at this point consist solely of a giant printing press, to print money until the cows come home to roost."

So we all know this will end really well for America.  But enough tomfoolery.  On to the charts!

First up, last update noted that I was favoring the bears, and that worked out well for the short-term.  I had noted previously that a break above the upper red line should take SPX north of 3425, and on Wednesday, that zone was reached, which cleared bears to take over.  And take over they did, at least for the near-term:

SPX rally was rejected right at the previously-highlighted blue trend line on the hourly chart:

SPX remains below the important pivot on the daily:

And OEX suggests that even if bulls can put together a near-term bounce here, the market might still be drawn back to current lows:

In conclusion, I continue to give the slight edge to bears, but it's not impossible for SPX to put in another leg up before resolving anything.  Trade safe.

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