Wednesday, September 16, 2020

SPX Update: IMPORTANT! Watch Jerome Powell's Tie! (And Two Potential Counts)

Last update we looked at a couple of near-term trend lines, then, during the session, we witnessed the market acknowledge the zone it reached (by spending an entire session bouncing along beneath it).  The market has now done enough that I can draw up the two main competing near-term counts for everyone who exists outside of my own head (presumably that's everyone, as I'm not a big fan of solipsism -- what I meant was that I already had some counts in mind last update, but it would have been too confusing to try to detail all those options for everyone else):

At the next larger time frame, we can see that SPX tagged the blue trend line on the 60 minute chart:

And in the very big picture, we see SPX is still below the blue pivot, and could actually run a bit higher before even reaching it:

In conclusion, I'm very (very) modestly inclined to give bears a slight edge here, but it's slight -- and we do have Fed Friday today, which means Powell could very well invoke multiple surprise uses of the word "tools" again, sending the market into a tailspin or a vertical launch, depending on what color tie he's wearing.  I'm out of time today, but I'll cover which color means what in the next update.  Trade safe.

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