Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Bonus Tuesday Market Update: Bears in the Running

After the close on Monday, I took a deep dive into the charts again, and feel the potentials I saw bear mention and examination.  Let's begin with the near-term SPX chart:

Next, we'll take a wider look at some "zones to watch" heading forward:

And an even wider look:

Originally (one year ago; May 1, 2020; see: Is America Approaching the End of a Supercycle Rally?), I drew the chart above like this (shown below).  I go back and forth on whether we're completing Supercycle III or V, but you can see the blue upside price projection is unchanged from the chart above:

Finally, NYA's most recent wave does have enough squiggles to count as complete if the market wants.  It probably fits a little better as Red 3, but there are ways to count it as Red 5, so it's not cut and dried and we'll pay close attention to how the market responds to key levels in the upcoming sessions:

In conclusion, after spotting the potential triangle in SPX and witnessing the price action yesterday, I came to the conclusion that there's no longer room for the "bullish complacency" espoused in the prior update.  While it's still possible for this to end up being a C-wave decline-slash-back-test of the prior breakout (and thus a bit early for any conviction), it is at least possible for things to get significantly bearish from here -- so it seemed important to update.  We'll pay close attention to the key levels heading forward, and see if bulls can hold on to their next important price zones or not, starting with the SPX 4100-10 zone we've been discussing for a while.  Trade safe.

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