Friday, May 27, 2022

SPX Update: First Upside Target Captured, and One for the Bulls

Bulls did their thing yesterday and broke out of the crash channel.  They then captured the first if/then upside target.  Given the wave structure, it looks reasonable to assume the next minor inflection will be reached to the upside (that inflection marks the potential where a complex correction could develop).  Assuming no complex correction, then red C looks reasonable (4145-65), so this has the makings of a decent rally:

Next, let's take this out one level further and see what happens in the event T2 is materially exceeded:

Bigger picture, the preferred count believes we're either working on a fourth wave or a second wave:

Finally, I mentioned this on Wednesday, so I do want to show it in the sake of balance, and because my conscience requires it.  This is the long-term alternate count (bullish), so I'm not favoring this -- but I'm not so blinded by my own bias that I can entirely pretend it doesn't exist.  Rest assured that this is in the back of my mind, so if we start to see any signs that it may be developing, I'll pass them on to you.

In conclusion, bulls have done what they've needed to so far to put together a (presumed) bear market rally, so I currently expect SPX will head higher for a time.  We have the next upside target zones to watch, so we'll wait for those and take it from there.  Enjoy the long weekend, and trade safe.

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