SPX Update

Last update suggested that the near-term had become a pain in the neck, and the market immediately tanked on that alarming realization.  While there's been a deep retrace, the count below is unaffected by that and still remains on the table, at least for the moment:

The near-term is likewise thus unchanged.  Keep in mind that much below the 3848 target zone and not only does the "Bear 5" become possible, but the extended fifth discussed previously would remain possible (see 5/10 annotation, at bottom).

In conclusion, if bulls continue holding the lower end of the target zone (3848), then the larger expanded flat remains on the table (though the inability of the market to break out of rising resistance yesterday needs to change; yesterday's action was not particularly bullish).  If SPX sustains a breakdown at 3848, then we probably have to presume that "Bear:5" is underway.  If it sustains a breakdown on increasing momentum, then we could very well be seeing the extended fifth that was discussed previously.  Trade safe.