Monday, June 27, 2022

SPX, BKX, NYA: SPX ~3900 Hit

Last update noted that bears might want to show caution and called out SPX ~3900 as the next zone we'd be watching -- and SPX got there before the close of the session.  This is the first test bulls face, so we'll see how the market handles it -- but if bulls sustain a breakout here, then it would call for bears to continue to show caution and patience.

BKX rallied up to red (iv) from last update:

NYA's whipsaw was indeed a near-term warning signal:

Also, I mentioned a few days back that I was working on a longer piece, but I've decided to hold off for a minute on publishing it.  The piece was a bit of an off-the-cuff analysis on current market sentiment (which, as I've discussed, seems to consist of people who say they're bearish but are invested as if they're bullish) -- so if you asked me why I've decided to hold off, I'd say because I actually want to see a larger rally here (and my gut says that may happen) and for people to really think the "bull party" is back in full swing... at which point I will then publish the piece discussing why I think they're wrong.  It's the contrarian in me (grin).  

Anyway, in conclusion, this is a test for the market, and while there's no particular chart or fundamental that grabs me at this juncture, as I mentioned above, my gut says there's a decent chance for a larger rally here... so we'll see how the market reacts to the test of resistance, but if it starts clearing resistance zones, then I do think bears should be careful (for the time being).  If it doesn't clear, then maybe bears are still in near-term business (and SPX may react to this zone, which is presumed resistance, in either case).  Trade safe.

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