Friday, July 29, 2022

SPX and BKX: Bad News is Good Again

So it appears the market has reverted to "bad news is good" mode, with investors jumping in on the hope that crummy econ data will cause the Fed to slow down -- of course, that line of thinking relies upon a number of questionable presuppositions:
  1. It presupposes that the Fed has near-complete control over the market.
  2. It presupposes that if the Fed slows down, then the bull market will return -- despite the fact that the prior bull market was not supported by a "slowing/neutral Fed," it was supported and driven by a Fed that had both feet on the liquidity accelerator.  
  3. It presupposes that bad econ data will fix inflation, thus allowing the Fed off the hook.
  4. It presupposes that everything else in the world goes swimmingly -- which means, among other things, that Russia will simply back down, oil will suddenly flow abundantly again, and our Vaunted Leaders will stop (seemingly) actively working to destroy America and the American people.
  5. It essentially presupposes that "good times are here again, just as long as that pesky Fed doesn't ruin everything!"  Which is kind of laughably naive, when you think about it.
But hey, if the market were rational, then we wouldn't need a market in the first place.  We could just plug-in a complex mathematical formula to determine the prices of everything, and then we could go back to watching Netflix, which would only cost 8 cents per month (see how perfectly this formula works?).

Chart-wise, SPX has now sneaked above the red line and is flirting with the 38 Fib:

While BKX is still a thorn in my analytical side:

In conclusion, last update noted:  

Nevertheless, in the event of a breakout, there is potential resistance not far above, in the 4085-4100 zone.

And futures are into that zone now, so we'll see how the market reacts to it, then take it from there.  In SPX, the current rally is still just three waves up and not yet a larger impulse, so it is still a corrective form -- for now.  Trade safe.

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