Monday, August 1, 2022

SPX, BKX, NYA Updates

I'm just going to be forthright here:  I'm not too pleased with myself right now.  Here's how I got here:  Back in June, I thought I saw this rally coming and I wrote about that (on June 27) -- the problem was, that was largely based on gut instinct (which can be hard to trust in the face of seemingly-contradictory evidence), so in July, when BKX made a low that looked like three waves (as did NYA), I threw my instinct out the window in favor of what appeared to be hard chart evidence.  I wrote off my first read in favor of the new read, and I believe now that was a mistake.  

My apologies for that error.

So is this a fourth wave or a second wave?  I genuinely don't know.  As of this moment, it could still be either; the chart explains the dividing line:

BKX is still a pain for all involved, and no change here:

I noted back on July 22 that in the event the current wave were to extend, then SPX 4200-35 would be a target.  Given BKX, I thought that unlikely at the time, but now -- who knows.  NYA says that it's at least possible:

So, with the wave counts up in the air, I often like to return to basics.  Below is a simple trend line/channel chart:

The irony is that as I write this, futures are down 26 points, so maybe there will be a significant reaction to the black trend line on the chart above, and we'll all have a good laugh about this later.  

In conclusion, SPX is in a sort of no-man's-land right now, where a fourth wave or second wave are both still on the table.  All I can do from here is try to take it as it comes.  Trade safe.

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