Wednesday, August 3, 2022

SPX and BKX: Inflection Zone

Last update discussed a (presumed) trend channel, and SPX has now reacted to that channel, so that's as close to "confirmation" [of a theoretical line drawn on a chart] that it gets in this biz.  

This leaves both options (fourth wave vs. second wave) on the table for now -- in other words, the current zone, stretching up to the bottom of Red 1, is an inflection zone where bears could reverse things:

No change to BKX, which remains a possible thorn for bulls:

In conclusion, the market is into a zone where a reversal could occur -- IF this is a fourth wave.  As I noted last update, it's somewhat unclear whether the current wave is a fourth or a larger second (which could run beyond the bottom of Red 1), but in either case, I want to reiterate that I remain long-term bearish -- so, regardless of whether this bounce is 4 or 2, I presently believe this is still a bear market (in case anyone had any impressions to the contrary).  In fact, until the bottom of Red 1 is overlapped, there's really no reason to give any significant consideration to larger bull options (at least as far as the technicals go).  Trade safe.

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